2022 New Energy Industry Report: The Penetration Rate Of Photovoltaic And Wind Power Has Accelerated, And New Energy Storage Has Exploded
Nov 09, 2022
The structure of energy consumption has accelerated its reform. Since 2011, the proportion of coal in the energy consumption structure has decreased from about 70% to about 55%, and the proportion of solar energy, wind power and other primary power has increased to about 15%. China's energy structure is in the stage of accelerated reform.
The forms of power generation are more abundant. The proportion of thermal power installed capacity has decreased rapidly, and there is differentiation within renewable energy power generation. Among them, wind power and solar power are growing faster than hydropower and nuclear power, while solar power is faster than wind power. Solar power is expected to replace hydropower as the second largest power source.
In the first half of the year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 20%, and the growth rate of plug-in vehicles is faster. In recent two years, new energy vehicles have entered the inflection point of penetration rate increase, and the sales volume has doubled. The penetration rate has also exceeded 20% and hit 30%. In the first half of the year, plug-in hybrid vehicles grew faster than pure electric vehicles.
To build a new power system with new energy as the main body, new energy vehicles are expected to achieve the 2025 goal ahead of schedule. China proposes that by 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%, by 2030, the proportion will increase to about 25%, and by 2060, the proportion will reach more than 80%, so as to build a new power system with new energy as the main body. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will probably exceed 20% by 2025 this year.
PV and wind power have initially entered the era of parity, and the penetration rate will accelerate. At present, some photovoltaic and wind power projects have achieved parity online, and subsidies are gradually withdrawn. Time Business School believes that with the gradual realization of parity online, photovoltaic and wind power are crossing the turning point of commercialization, and the penetration rate will accelerate.
"Energy storage" will play a key role in the reform of energy structure. Photovoltaic and wind power are unstable power generation forms. The power generation is affected by the changes of sunlight and wind, and the stability is poor, so it is difficult to become the main power generation form. The peak shaving and valley filling capacity of energy storage makes this kind of unstable energy is expected to become the main form of power generation.
New energy vehicles are driven by policies and products. The new energy automobile industry relied on subsidies in the early stage, but it has achieved explosive growth in the past two years against the background of decreasing subsidies. The industry has obviously shifted from policy driven to product driven. It is expected that the market driven high growth rate will last for a long time due to the continuous enrichment of products, the progress of battery technology, the improvement of infrastructure and other factors.
The global competitiveness of China's new energy industry has improved, and the export volume of products has increased significantly. In 2021, the export volume of new energy vehicles will increase by 345.5% year on year. In the first three quarters of this year, the export volume of new energy vehicles will increase by 100.6% again. In terms of photovoltaic, the export amount of China's solar cells will increase by 43.8% year on year in 2021, and the growth rate will further increase to 91.2% from January to August 2022. The tide of China's new energy industry going to sea is related to the improvement of the global position of the industrial chain.
